Saddam Hussein
With the termination of Cold War, economic globalization became a buzz-word. Geostrategic interests were sketched on new lines; this time economics taking the driving seat. Most of the states came to an understanding of pocketing benefits from the economic synergies and joint collaborations to mitigate socio-economic issues in a collective manner.
In the wake of changing regional and global trends towards the enhanced economic cooperation, Pakistan-China cooperation is no exception. Both, traditional and time-tested friends, correspondingly felt the need to increase and fortify their mutual economic relationship. Since 2000, Islamabad and Beijing have been resolutely focusing to catch up the beat in the economic domain, to an advanced level that is equivalent to their diplomatic and military relations.
In this context, a key landmark was realized in 2013 when an agreement was signed between both countries to establish the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which would undoubtedly take their strategic and economic partnership to a new height.
CPEC is the cornerstone of China’s One Belt One Road global vision of infrastructure connectivity and its conception of 21st century multi-polarity. It would not be an exaggeration to state that it’s one of the most significant game-changing endeavors to ever be attempted in the contemporary times. Economic trajectory of CPEC can surely weave together South Asia, Central Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.
Geographically speaking, Pakistan is capable in facilitating the Central, West and the South Asian nations to benefit from OBOR through CPEC. Pakistan is determined to use its strategic position positively in the emerging regional connectivity. Although, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi openly opposed CPEC, Pakistani and Chinese leadership is determined to engage the South Asian states including India for the prosperity of entire region.
The economic connectivity would undoubtedly help in swapping the animosity with the unfriendly neighbours. Islamabad is encouraging the neighbouring states to invest in CPEC projects. Definitely, the neighbouring states’ investment enriches the significance of the project but it also has fruitful impact on investors’ economies. It is a catalytic project that will help us form a conglomerate for geo-economic interest of the regional countries. The corridor also represents Pakistan’s and China’s commitment to fashion a win-win partnership that threatens none and benefits all. Precisely, CPEC would have dividends for the entire region.
CPEC would also have significant impacts on many fronts including economy, politics, security, as well as regional and global power equation. First of all, it would aid in expansion of trade routes for China. The country imports 60% of its oil from the Middle East and 80% of that oil is transported to China via long, expensive and risky piracy-rife maritime, Strait of Malacca, onwards through South China, East China and Yellow seas. On the contrary, Gwader-Xinjiang route is the best alternate and economical route for the purpose. Besides, through this route Chinese would have access of many new markets, such as Central Asian ones, those of Africa and the Gulf states.
Apart from this, Beijing’s primary internal challenge at present is the east-west development gap between its developed eastern region and under-developed western region of Xinjiang. Once CPEC becomes operational, it would generate economic opportunities across wide-ranging sector, thus uplifting the region economically, eventually catching up with the eastern region of the country.
Likewise, for Pakistan which is facing grave economic challenges, CPEC can prove to be a trump card, offering a window of opportunity to stabilize its economy, while at the same time decontaminating relations with its neighbors and by making Gwadar a trade and economic hub of the region. The corridor will offer a remedy to many of its problems and will open new horizons of development by improving socio-economic conditions of the people and by raising their living standards.
In addition to that, CPEC, that also comprises the construction of roads, railway tracks, energy pipeline routes, and Gwadar’s international airport, provides Pakistan with a novel asset in the form of infrastructure. With CPEC, Pakistan will acquire the most advanced infrastructure, a pre-requisite for an economic take-off.
Moreover, the corridor will also strengthen security cooperation between Pakistan and China; the core of which will be consolidation of the naval cooperation between the two sides. This would also contribute to the balance of power in the region, against the US courting India, assigning the lead role in the Indian Ocean, which is unacceptable to both China and Pakistan.
Now coming toward the opponents of the CPEC, these are not many; though, their influence is not insignificant. Firstly, CPEC has not faced any resistance from the US officially, yet in the long run it cannot remain indifferent with the strategic implications of CPEC may have important geostrategic and political effects for US policy and interests in the region. Secondly, CPEC has increased Indian apprehensions, generating some serious concerns for New Delhi as the corridor can counter its hegemonic designs in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and the Persian Gulf. Besides that, CPEC will have a direct land route access to the Central Asian states with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran that India certainly does not want to happen. Another country that seems to be unhappy with the idea is United Arab Emirates (UAE). Once Gwadar port becomes fully operational, it will directly affect Dubai port, losing around 70% of its business. This prompted UAE to look for new strategic partners and India is the most viable option. Whereas, Iran and Afghanistan showed some resistance initially, but now both countries are considering options to join CPEC in different capacities.
For pacifying the adversaries of CPEC, both Beijing and Islamabad need to engage through solid diplomatic maneuvers and should promote dialogues to develop the collective understanding among regional countries. Harnessing the vision of CPEC calls for engaging with the concerned regional actors, rationally and strategically, making them partners instead of foes.
However, Islamabad should not put all its eggs in a single basket. It ought to understand the shifting ground realities; and through diplomatic endeavors, it should walk on the tight rope of its foreign policy towards both China and the West with a balanced approach. Islamabad should explore and capitalize on all opportunities so that its economy does not get trampled under the interests of strong powers. Pakistan should also keep itself as neutral as possible in what is being predicted to be the beginning of a new Cold War between Beijing and Washington.
The author Saddam Hussein is a Development Economist, while he serves as a Research Fellow at Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), and Program Officer for CRSS’ sister organization – Afghan Studies Center, Islamabad.
