Aisha Saeed
Since antiquity, warfare has been in a constant state of evolution. From the use of rudimentary weapons and tactics, through swords, muskets and high explosives, it arrived at the perils of nuclear weapons in the 20th century. The absolute destruction modern weapons are capable of causing has resulted in the evolution of war to an undefined domain where boundaries between war and peace, combatant and civilian, friend and foe are increasingly becoming nebulous. This form of all-encompassing warfare which isn’t restricted to any single dimension is what’s being termed as Hybrid Warfare.
Pakistan is bequeathed with a geostrategic location where historically civilizations converged and in the contemporary world, the interests of world power concentrate. Being a security state in retrospect, Pakistan has always faced external threats from its eastern and western neighbours. With the evolution of war and the development of nuclear weapons, the deterrence equilibrium in Southeast Asia has attained balance. Consequently, forces inimical to Pakistan have resorted to a multifaceted and multi-dimensional hybrid warfare targeting conventional, socio-economic, cyber and diplomatic fronts of the country.
China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), with CPEC being its flagship project, has always been seen cynically by the west. It’s in the targeting of CPEC that the interests of the US and India converge and hence Pakistan is being besieged by various tools of Hybrid warfare.
Being a nuclear power, a direct military confrontation with Pakistan might prove catastrophic. With porous Pak-Afghan and Pak-Iran borders and the presence of various extremist elements in the country, hostile countries found it convenient to exploit Pakistan’s inherent security vulnerabilities. The support of terrorist organizations like TTP, BLA, and BRA by Indian spy agency RAW and coordinating terrorist attacks from across the border, especially on CPEC routes and Gwadar, have been evidently proved time and again.
This is the most intricate and diverse tool where inherent weaknesses of a state with regards to its populace (ethnic, religious, sectarian, social) are targeted by a plethora of means including information warfare, cyber-attacks, social media exploitation, and anti-state narrative building. Dissident individuals and organizations, most notably ‘Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM)’, are being used as pawns by larger forces to instigate unrest and create a sense of deprivation in various segments of the society. Social media is used to create civil-military rifts by paid accounts mostly operated from foreign lands. By seemingly subtle methods of perception management, a feeling of hopelessness is deftly generated in the people of various strata, which can galvanize mass agitation and strikes.
For cash strapped countries like Pakistan, this method is extremely effective for international powers to coerce them for their own interests. US’ influence over organizations like the World Bank and IMF is amply utilized and punitive economic measures are taken against Pakistan for not complying with American interests. Recently, the reimbursements to Pakistan, for its support to the US’ war on terror, have also been diverted to the construction of a wall on the Mexican border.
While other means implacably continue to debilitate the country, a simultaneous offensive on the diplomatic front is launched to discredit the government and subsequently brand it as a rogue state. This is further exacerbated by a reactive foreign policy and weak and inconsistent leadership. Indian and American influence in forums like FATF to push Pakistan into Grey/ Blacklists was effective because of a lack of preparation and interest by Pakistan.
This is usually the last stage of hybrid warfare where the target state is internally weak and the government is discredited. A moral/ political pretext is invented by the hostile state to put boots on the ground (preferably Special Forces) and put the final nail in the coffin with the help of proxies, fifth columnists and militant groups. Indian invasion of East Pakistan in 1971 and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 are quintessential examples. Moreover, recent Indian sabre rattling during the Balakot charade was another futile attempt to abase the Pakistani Armed Forces.
Hybrid warfare subsumes various tools to simultaneously attack a target state without getting mired in a conventional war. Hostile agencies have been invariably using terrorist organizations to internally destabilize Pakistan.
Intrinsic societal vulnerabilities and governmental derelictions can be duly capitalized on by using propaganda, information warfare, and social media exploitation to invoke seditious tendencies.
Diplomatic and economic coercion are constantly being used to further strangulate Pakistan. The armed forces of Pakistan are in a constant state of war on both internal and external fronts.
While most of the terrorists have been wiped out, the recent surge in such attacks indicates the presence of sleeper cells and facilitators. Measured kinetic operations with zero collateral damage must be followed through by stabilizing and normalizing actions. Border fencing with Afghanistan and Iran must be accelerated. Moreover, the government should prioritize the regularization of religious seminaries so that extremism can be curbed. National Action Plan (NAP) must be implemented to the letter.
The prime defence against agitation is deliverance by the government and economic prosperity across the country. By the provision of merit-based job opportunities, eradication of corruption and exemplary governance, the enemy’s propaganda could be thwarted. Synergized efforts are required by ISPR and Information Ministry to craft a national narrative against anti-state elements and false propaganda. Dedicated efforts to address genuine grievances of the people from deprived areas, especially districts of erstwhile FATA and Balochistan, should be made. While ensuring freedom of the press, PEMRA must define red lines for media outlets with regards to national security/ interests and hold them accountable in case of any violation.
Pakistan’s economy is in tatters. The foremost responsibility of the incumbent government should be the economic revival of the country. While a lot is being done to reduce the trade deficit and increase tax revenues, the problem lies in the implementation. All loss incurring State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), primarily PIA and Pakistan Steel Mills, must be privatized. Foreign remittances, being a major contributor to the national exchequer, need to be increased by exporting skilled manpower to the Middle East and Western Countries. Pakistan needs to have a proactive foreign policy where it can effectively and timely convey its viewpoint to the world. Appointment of focal persons, directly reporting to the PM, to deal with the likes of FATF is required as these have massive economic repercussions. Russian and Chinese support should be garnered in the case of Indo-American diplomatic offensives.
While Pakistan’s Armed Forces are the strongest in 71 years of our history, complacency must not be allowed to creep in. Prime focus, along with training, should be on up-gradation of weapon and equipment and incorporation of technology in military installations. Efforts should be made towards future self-reliance by indigenous production of small and heavy weapons. The threat spectrum must be constantly evaluated by analyzing the ever-changing nature of warfare and war doctrines be upgraded accordingly.
The world has reached a juncture where a direct conventional war is not only inconvenient but also not cost-effective. Hybrid war will continue to evolve into further complex forms and Pakistan will remain under such a war in the foreseeable future. While hybrid war cannot be defeated per se, it can surely be managed if only the government and the agencies acknowledge the threat and work together.
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Aisha Saeed is an independent analyst on the media and foreign policy of Pakistan.
She tweets @MsAishaK.
